Abasesenguzi mu bukungu bavuga ko mu myaka iri imbere ibihugu biri mu nzira y’amajyambere bizagira uruhare runini mu bukungu bw’Isi, aho bimwe muri byo biteganyijwe ko bizaba byarenze ibihugu bisanzwe bifatwa nk’ibikomeye muri uru rwego.
N’ubwo ubukungu bw’isi bwahuye n’ibibazo bikomeye birimo Brexit, icyorezo cya COVID-19, intambara yo muri Ukraine ndetse n’izamuka ry’imisoro ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga, impuguke zigaragaza ko buzongera kuzamuka ku muvuduko ushimishije mu myaka iri imbere.
Raporo ‘The World in 2050’ yakozwe n’Ikigo mpuzamahanga cy’ubushakashatsi mu bukungu (PwC), igaragaza ko kugeza mu mwaka wa 2050 ubukungu bw’isi buzaba bwarikubye kabiri, n’ubwo umubare w’abatuye isi uzaba wariyongereyeho hafi 26% gusa nk’uko biteganywa n’Umuryango w’Abibumbye (UN).
Iyo raporo ivuga ko ibihugu byinshi biri mu nzira y’amajyambere bizaba bifite ubukungu buruta ubw’ibihugu bisanzwe biyoboye isi muri iki gihe; aho biteganyijwe ko Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zizava ku mwanya wa kabiri zikajya ku wa gatatu, u Buyapani bukava ku wa kane bukajya ku wa munani, naho u Budage bukamanuka bukagera ku mwanya wa cyenda.
Mu bihugu biteganyijwe kuzagira uruhare rukomeye mu bukungu bw’isi harimo u Bushinwa, u Buhinde, Brazil, Mexique na Nigeria.
U Bushinwa bukomeje kwagura ubukungu ku muvuduko udasanzwe
U Bushinwa bukomeje kuyobora isi mu bukungu bushingiye ku bushobozi bwo kugura (Purchasing Power Parity – PPP). Mu myaka 10 ishize, ubukungu bwabwo bwazamutse cyane, ibintu bikomeje kugaragarira mu iterambere ry’imijyi n’ibikorwa remezo.
Rowan Kohll, umwanditsi w’ibitabo byigisha Igishinwa, yavuze ko agace ka Suzhou yagezemo bwa mbere hashize imyaka 15 kari kagizwe n’imirima n’imisozi, ariko ubu kakaba karahindutse umujyi ugezweho urimo inyubako z’ubucuruzi, amaduka agezweho n’ibindi bikorwa by’iterambere.
U Buhinde butegerejweho kuba ubukungu bwa kabiri ku isi
Raporo ya PwC igaragaza ko ubukungu bw’u Buhinde buzazamuka ku gipimo cya 5% buri mwaka, bigatuma mu 2050 buzaba ari ubwa kabiri ku isi nyuma y’u Bushinwa.
Saurabh Jindal, utegura ikiganiro Talk Travel, yavuze ko mu myaka ishize igihugu cyabo cyagize impinduka zikomeye mu mibereho y’abaturage, mu iterambere ry’imijyi, ikoranabuhanga ndetse n’uburyo bwo gutwara abantu n’ibintu.
Brazil ikomeje kwagura urwego rw’imari n’inganda
Biteganyijwe ko Brazil izaba igihugu cya gatanu gifite ubukungu bunini ku isi. N’ubwo ihanganye n’ibibazo birimo ruswa n’izamuka ry’ibiciro, iki gihugu cyabaye kimwe mu bya mbere byateje imbere serivisi z’imari zishingiye ku ikoranabuhanga (fintech).
Impuguke Annalisa Nash Fernandez yavuze ko uburyo bwo kwishyura hakoreshejwe ikoranabuhanga bumaze imyaka myinshi bukoreshwa muri Brazil, ndetse na mbere y’ikwirakwizwa rya telefoni zigezweho abaturage bakoreshaga ATM mu bikorwa byinshi by’imari.
Mexique ikomeje gushora imari mu bikorwa remezo
Mexique na yo iri mu bihugu biteganyijwe kuzamuka cyane mu bukungu, aho ishobora kugera ku mwanya wa karindwi ku isi mu mwaka wa 2050.
Leta y’iki gihugu yatangaje gahunda yo gushora miliyari 44 z’amadolari ya Amerika mu bikorwa remezo mu myaka ine iri imbere, hagamijwe gukomeza guteza imbere ubukungu no kongera ubushobozi bw’igihugu mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga.
Nigeria ishobora kuzamuka cyane muri Afurika
Nigeria, isanzwe iri mu bihugu bifite ubukungu bunini muri Afurika, na yo iri mu biteganyijwe kuzazamuka ku buryo bugaragara mu myaka iri imbere.
Raporo ivuga ko ubukungu bwayo bushobora kuzamuka ku gipimo cya 4.2% buri mwaka, bukava ku mwanya wa 22 bukagera ku wa 14 ku rutonde rw’ibihugu bifite ubukungu bukomeye ku isi.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko umuco wo kwihangira imirimo no gukora ubucuruzi uri mu bituma Nigeria ikomeza gutera imbere. Imibare ya Global Entrepreneurship Monitor igaragaza ko abarenga 30% by’Abanyanigeria bafite cyangwa batangiye imishinga yabo bwite.
Impinduka zikomeye zitegerejwe mu bukungu bw’Isi
Muri rusange, raporo ya PwC igaragaza ko mu myaka iri imbere ibihugu biri mu nzira y’amajyambere ari byo bizaba bifite uruhare runini mu bukungu bw’isi. Ibi bikaba byitezweho guhindura uburyo ubukungu mpuzamahanga busanzwe buteye, aho ibihugu byahoze biyoboye isi bishobora gusimburwa n’ibihugu bifite ubukungu buri kuzamuka ku muvuduko mwinshi.
